Predict The Peak 2022 has ended. Thank you to all of our sponsors and please check back next year to participate in Predict The Peak 2023!
What is PREDICT THE PEAK? Each spring as snowpack melts in the mountains, it feeds the rivers with a pulse of water, bringing about the highest streamflow of the year to our rivers. The “peak flow” changes year-to-year in timing and volume. MT Freshwater Partners holds an annual fundraiser where participants pay $25 per guess to predict the correct peak flow for the Yellowstone, Bitterroot, Gallatin, and/or Middle Fork Flathead Rivers, and the closest guesses win some really amazing prize packages! Proceeds support the protection and restoration of Montana’s rivers.
Why PREDICT THE PEAK matters? Climate change is causing rising temperatures, lower snowpack, earlier runoff, and variation in precipitation. These changes can ultimately lead to reduced streamflow and drought conditions, which affect everything from our natural resources, to our food to our way of life. The work our organization does helps to moderate the effects of climate change and Predict The Peak supports these efforts!
Predict The Peak Contest FAQs
How does the PREDICT THE PEAK contest work?
- Guess the Peak of the river
$25 (donation) per guess in CFS (cubic feet/second); Make four guesses and get a fifth guess for free!
- The closest guess to the actual peak flow wins an amazing prize package!
One grand prize winner per river with prize packages for runner up guesses.
- Your participation helps contribute to the vitality, health and resilience of Montana’s rivers!
I'm no scientist. How do I make a prediction?
4 Different Ideas:
1. Make a scientific guess by using data!
• Look at snowpack levels Current Snotel Snow Water Equivalents
• Reference NOAAs river flow projections
• Reference the extended forecast and be sure to look at the nighttime lows in higher elevations!
• Consider how much low to mid elevation snow there is in conjunction with the upcoming weather
2. Make an educated guess!
By looking at past historical flows – Ten year average peak flows for each river:
- Yellowstone River average peak flow: 25,864 CFS
- MF Flathead River: 19,200 CFS
- Gallatin River average peak flow: 5,644 CFS
- Bitterroot River average peak flow: 15,069 CFS
3. Use a random math equation!
Take your grandmother’s age x 100 + age of your eldest child + County license number + month number + # beers you drank last week = Your guess
4. Take a stab in the dark – or a wild guess!
What is "peak flow" & why does all of this matter?
Each spring as snowpack melts in the mountains, the runoff brings the highest flows of the year to Montana’s Rivers. This “peak flow” changes year-to-year in timing and volume, and is becoming increasingly variable.
Climate change is causing rising temperatures, lower snowpack, earlier runoff, and variation in precipitation, all of which affect the health of our streams and rivers.
The work our organization does helps boost resiliency to climate change, so please support our fundraiser!
I'm in! Now what?
Awesome! The contest starts April 14, 2022 at 12 PM and ends 8 PM on May 22, 2022.